What is the outlook for the defence and security sector?

  • Experts

    16 July 2021

Le digital et l'IA au cœur de la stratégie militaire

In military terms, the world is less dangerous than the media and some ministries would have us believe. The greatest threat lies in the massive and rapid development of digital technology and AI, where firms are investing tens of billions of dollars to shape our daily environment, without the public even realising.

While warfare previously relied on past experience, it is now based on the ability to process multiple scenarios and millions of data points very quickly. It involves designing multi-dimensional battlefields, containing as many traps as possible, and even including outer space. It is significant in this respect that the French Defence Innovation Agency is calling on scriptwriters and novelists to help it better pre-empt new risks.

In terms of strategy, the ground troop intervention model is being abandoned as it is too time-consuming, expensive and inefficient. States are now refocusing on the defence of their vital interests.

In Europe, the major military-industrial programmes are concentrating on future tanks and aircraft/drone combat systems (planned for around 2035), while in France they also include the future nuclear aircraft carrier (planned for 2045).

Jean-Jacques Roche
Professor at the University of Paris II. Director of the Higher Institute for Arms and Defence (ISAD)

Key figures

  • Over €1,750 billion: global spending on arms and defence.
  • 30%: US share of this total.
  • €66.6 billion: France’s defence and security budget (14% of the State budget).

Sources : Statista, Sipri, Ministry of the Economy

defence outlook security
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